DTN Midday Livestock Comments          09/09 11:41

   Cattle Aim to Recover Some of Last Week's Downturn 

   Heading into Monday afternoon, the cattle contracts are trading higher while 
the lean hog complex continues to drift lower. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   Thus far, Monday's market has been mixed as traders are eager and willing to 
help the cattle contracts move higher but are reluctant to help the lean hog 
complex. Demand in both the pork and beef markets will be a key factor traders 
monitor this week as they're desperate for better fundamental support. December 
corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.60. The Dow 
Jones Industrial Average is up 633.96 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle complex is posting a modest bounce following late last 
week's gruesome decline. At Monday's noon hour, all live cattle contracts are 
posting gains above $1.00, and this is aiding the feeder cattle contracts to 
higher price points as well. The market has been challenged significantly since 
the beginning of July, so it's too soon to say what kind of support Monday's 
higher trend brings. October live cattle are up $1.62 at $176.82, December live 
cattle are up $1.90 at $176.60, and February live cattle are up $1.95 at 
$177.35. It's too early in the week for asking prices or bids to have been 
posted yet, but with packers strategically buying cattle with time over the 
last couple weeks, feedlot managers are going to be hard pressed to get prices 
to trade steady.

   Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $181, which is $2.00 lower 
than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded 
for mostly $288, which is also $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted 
average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 67,595 head. Of that 
68% (45,760 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 
32% (21,835 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.20 ($309.61) and select up $3.94 
($300.06) with a movement of 57 loads (25.12 loads of choice, 10.73 loads of 
select, 10.00 loads of trim and 11.46 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The cattle complex has danced back and forth, but as we approach Monday's 
noon hour, with the added support of the higher trading live cattle complex, 
the feeder cattle contracts are also trading higher. September feeders are up 
$2.62 at $236.92, October feeders are up $3.40 at $234.35, and November feeders 
are up $2.80 at $230.82. So long as the live cattle complex continues to trade 
higher, feeders shouldn't struggle to keep their higher tone through Monday's 
close. It's a relief to see the complex trading higher as Friday's close was at 
support levels and if traders would have elected to send the feeder cattle 
market trading lower this morning, it's anyone's guess where new technical 
support would have been found at.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex isn't as quick to turn and change direction as the 
cattle contracts are. Most of the lean hog contracts are still trading lower as 
traders want to see substantial fundamental support before they'll again 
advance the board. Midday pork cutout values are higher, but traders are more 
interested in seeing what Monday's afternoon prices do as that's a better 
indication of the market's true consumer support. October lean hogs are down 
$0.32 at $79.17, December lean hogs are down $0.10 at $71.12, and February lean 
hogs are down $0.17 at $74.72.

   The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/6/2024 is down $0.50 at $85.74, and 
the actual index for 9/5/2024 is down $0.19 at $86.24. Hog prices are 
unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. 
However, we can see that only 147 head have traded, and the market's five-day 
rolling average now sits at $78.14. Pork cutouts total 164.45 loads with 132.20 
loads of pork cuts and 32.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.78, 
$97.88.  

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com

   **

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