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DTN Midday Grain Comments     11/25 11:12

   Corn, Soybeans, Wheat Lower at Midday

   Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower, soybeans are 5 to 6 cents lower and 
wheat is 6 to 16 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 210. The U.S. Dollar Index 
is 20 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with 
crude up .60. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with 
gold up $5.00.


   Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with rangebound trade 
continuing as we head towards the Thanksgiving break. The daily export sales 
wire was quiet again Wednesday. The weekly ethanol report showed production up 
28,000 barrels per day (bpd) with stocks up by 663,000 barrels with poor 
driving demand last week; ethanol futures are losing ground to unleaded at 
midday. Basis remains generally strong. On the December contract support is the 
20-day moving average at $4.13 with the lower Bollinger band at $3.94 as the 
next level down with the fresh high at $4.29 3/4 scored Monday with the upper 
Bollinger band at $4.31 above that.


   Soybean futures are 5 to 6 cents lower with trade continuing to chop just 
below the highs with little fresh news. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 
45 to 55 points higher. The daily export wire has remained quiet for soybeans 
with concerns about China crush margins and cancellations rumored but 
unconfirmed. South America has some dry pockets building with northern Brazil 
looking to see more moisture short term; the southern 1/3 of Brazil will be 
very dry the next week. Wetter action is expected for most in the longer-term 
forecast. Basis remains strong as we continue to work to max out our logistics 
capacity to ship the needed export bushels with freight issues remaining in 
play. The January chart has resistance at the fresh high of 12.00 scored 
Monday; the upper Bollinger band is at $12.22 and support is the 20-day moving 
average at $11.32.


   Wheat futures are 5 to 17 cents lower with broad selling during the day 
session as we work towards the lower end of the range after failing to break 
out Tuesday. The dollar has turned lower again, which should be supportive 
overall. World export tenders continue to go to Black Sea origin for the most 
part with little change in overall conditions there. The western U.S. Plains 
remain dry in the short term as we head towards dormancy with some snows across 
Kansas bringing a bit of moisture. KC is at a 45-cent discount to Chicago with 
spreads reversing after testing the upper end of the range; Minneapolis is at 
-48. KC December chart resistance is the 20-day moving average at $5.52, which 
we will have broken back below at midday; support is the lower Bollinger band 
at $5.40.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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