DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/19 11:40
All Grains Lower at Midday
Soybeans and wheat lead trade lower at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow futures down 400. The
interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 30 lower. Energies are
weaker with crude down $0.15. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are
Corn trade is 2 cents lower at midday with trade seeing follow-through
selling. At midday we are at fresh November lows. The ethanol production
margins will remain poor but Thanksgiving travel should be supportive this
week. The weekly export inspections were softer at 797,459 metric tons. The
USDA announced 138,000 metric tons sold to South Korea on the daily wire.
Harvest should be past 90% on the weekly crop progress report due out this
afternoon. Corn basis should be sideways to firmer the rest of the month if the
board says sideways to weaker. On the December chart we edged just below the
50-day at $3.65 with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.61 below that now support.
Resistance above the 50-day is at the $3.68 20-day moving average.
Soybean trade is 16 to 18 cents lower at midday and challenging support
levels. Meal is $5 to $6 lower and bean oil is narrowly mixed. Export business
has picked up recently with the trade watching for friendly news. South
American continues to make good progress with limited weather concerns at this
juncture. The weekly export inspections were ok at 1.054 million metric tons
but the number did not help the futures recover. Harvest progress should be
past 95% on the weekly crop report this afternoon. Support is found at the
$8.75 area where we find the 100-day moving average which we are testing at
midday. Resistance is the 10-day at $8.83.
Wheat trade is 1 to 10 cents lower with trade falling to new lows for the
move with spring wheat holding the best. Chicago is the spread vs. KC this
morning. Kansas City wheat remains very oversold on the oscillators which
should help provide support at these levels but we will need some positive
action to confirm. The dollar has faded with better action from the pound and
euro. Weekly export inspections showed improvement at 509,118 metric tons.
Weekly crop progress will likely show steady conditions with planting and
emergence remaining behind normal. On the December Kansas City chart, we have
support at the lows at $4.73, and resistance the 10-day at $4.92.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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